Investment Perspectives
The Beginning of the Bull Market – 2023
Bull Market Climax – 2024-2025
In 2024-2025, there are three main factors driving the Bitcoin bull market:
1. 'Halving’
As of 2023, there have been three halving events for Bitcoin, the most recent of which occurred on May 11, 2020, and the next halving event will occur around April 2024. Reduced supply will naturally push up prices:
●First halving: In 2012, about 12 months after the peak (November 2013), the price of the currency increased by 8450%
●Second halving: 2016 About 17 months after the peak (December 2017), the price of the currency increased by 290%
●Third halving: In 2019, about 18 months after the peak (November 2021), the price of the currency increased by 560%.
Schematic diagram of Bitcoin's four-year halving
The cyclical "halving" of Bitcoin's supply has made its price highly cyclical
The halving in April 2024 will be one of the main drivers of the bull market over the next two years
2. Bitcoin spot ETF was approved
On January 10, 2023, the SEC announced that it had approved the trading of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and all 11 Bitcoin ETF applications, including Baker, Ark and Grayscale, were approved.
This is a milestone event in the crypto asset market and the cornerstone of Bitcoin's long-term bull market, because spot ETFs allow traditional financial market investors to participate in Bitcoin investment in a convenient and fast way, marking the true acceptance of Bitcoin as an asset class with unique value by mainstream institutions in traditional financial markets.
In the 20 days since its launch, the Bitcoin spot ETF has reached $35 billion, surpassing the silver ETF and becoming the second commodity ETF after the gold ETF.
Bitcoin spot ETF's interpretation of the bull market, you can refer to the gold ETF: the last round of the gold bull market for example, the price from the lowest in 2001 to $291 in 2001, the highest point in November 2011 at $1920, an increase of more than 600%, of which the launch of gold spot ETF is a major driving force, we can see in the figure below that the largest gold ETF fund SPDR Gold Share holdings are basically highly positively correlated with gold prices, which is the main driving force to promote the gold bull market.
3. Monetary easing
Bitcoin, like gold, is a non-interest-bearing asset, and the level of interest rates represents the opportunity cost of its holdings, which will have a greater impact on the Fed's monetary cycle.
According to the median interest rate level of the Federal Reserve meeting, it is expected that the next few years will enter a monetary easing cycle, and it is believed that this easing cycle will promote more funds into the crypto asset market.
In fact, spot ETFs represent a shift in investor structure, with Bitcoin's price fluctuations and cycles increasingly influenced by the paradigm of traditional financial institutions, and the U.S. monetary policy cycle having an increasing impact on its price.
In 2024, bulls in various industries have made optimistic predictions for the price of bitcoin, among which Cathie Wood of the Ark Fund is the most optimistic, at $600,000, that is, bitcoin will rise by about 1,500%.
The median forecast for many agencies is $150,000-$175,000.
Investment strategy
1. Subjective long strategy
Based on the judgment of the bull market, our investment strategy is mainly to go long on spot bands such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, combined with derivatives such as contracts and options, to amplify possible returns and hedge potential risks.
2. Primary investment and secondary market-making linkage strategy
With the relevant selected project tokens of the OpenEx exchange ecosystem as the primary target, it provides a green channel for the listing of project tokens, and provides post-listing liquidity and market-making services, so as to realize the linkage mode of low valuation entry in the primary market and high-frequency trading and market making in the secondary market, and maximize the returns brought by high-quality projects in the context of the bull market.
